Long- and short-run effects of climate change on Boro rice productivity: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

This study examines the effect of climate change on Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh. Unit root, co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) estimation techniques are applied to measure the climate–crop yield interrelation on the basis of country-level time series data for the period 1972–2019. Average maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity are used as climate variables. The results of the VECM show that, in the short run, average maximum temperature, average total rainfall and humidity have negative effects on Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh, while average minimum temperature has a positive effect. Fertilizer and irrigation have positive short-run effects on Boro rice productivity, whereas labour has a robust negative short-run effect. Policy makers should develop policies to mitigate the effect of rising temperature and introduce heat-tolerant rice varieties and adaptation measures to sustain Boro rice productivity in Bangladesh.